10-Year Returns of Individual S&P 500 Companies

My colleagues were discussing about Intel’s stock price during the dot com era where it stood at somewhere around $74.88. Comparing to today’s price of $31.90 (as of now),  Intel employees in the old days (around year 2000) benefited more from Intel stocks if they sold their stocks. That was what I heard from my colleagues.

The huge price different between year 2000 and year 2014 (now), I suspected, was due to stock split. So I went online and check for historical stock split for Intel Corporation. I found this interesting site: Intel Stock Split History. It lists down all the historical stock split detail for a US company like Intel. Indeed, there was a 2 for 1 split on July 31 of 2000 which explains today’s lower stock price for Intel (INTC). So, it is not so true that Intel employees benefit more if they happened to sell their stocks in 2000 rather than if they hold on to the stocks.

The moral of the story: It can be deceptive by looking at the price of a stock alone.

Another discovery is that the website that I found also provides other useful information like annualized returns over a 10-year period until October 9 2014 for companies in the US. That is the kind of info I was searching for to analyse and get some concrete statistical numbers on stock investment returns all this while. It got me excited and so I decided to make full use of the data to do some quick study.

Intel 10-Year Returns

Intel 10-Year Returns

Note: Currently, I am still looking for data in the Malaysian market (for companies listed in Bursa), but for now, just stick with the data in the United States for the analysis.

It took me around 2 hours to:

  • write a simple web scraper program (using Selenium, if you know what it is) to collect the data of S&P 500 companies’ 10-year returns (it took about 15 minutes to run to collect all the 398 companies available from the website),
  • write a parser to convert the data into table format,
  • touch up the data so that it looks good on my blog. 🙂

So, below is the data that I collected. Some notes to keep in mind for understanding the info in the table below:

  • most of the returns are calculated between October 11 2004 till October 9 2014 (a 10-year period). Some of the companies have data less than 10 years, you can know by looking at the “Years” column.
  • most of the returns are calculated with dividends reinvested if the companies pay dividends. Some don’t and you can know by looking at the “Dividends /Share” column where $0.00 indicates that no dividend was paid.
  • there are only 398 companies available because the website only has data for 398 companies in the S&P 500 category.
  • the table is sorted based on total returns from the highest to the lowest return.

CompanyStart Price /ShareEnd Price /ShareDividends /ShareTotal ReturnAnnualized GainYears
keurig-green-mountain$1.79$143.17$1.007973.68%55.13%10.00
apple$2.76$101.02$3.823748.59%44.06%10.00
alexion-pharmaceuticals$4.59$170.30$0.003610.24%43.53%10.00
netflix$17.43$461.62$0.002548.42%38.77%10.00
cf-industries-holdings$16.20$271.05$9.681679.57%36.90%9.17
mastercard$4.60$71.83$1.061506.57%39.28%8.38
salesforce-com$4.55$57.13$0.001155.60%28.79%10.00
celgene$7.81$92.38$0.001082.84%28.02%10.00
gilead-sciences$9.47$105.85$0.001017.74%27.30%10.00
delta-air-lines$3.08$33.71$0.331006.66%27.17%10.00
under-armour$6.33$65.37$0.00932.70%30.02%8.89
western-digital$9.48$93.39$2.65927.13%26.23%10.00
cerner$5.70$58.11$0.00919.47%26.14%10.00
vertex-pharmaceuticals$11.04$105.27$0.00853.53%25.29%10.00
flowserve$8.13$64.98$3.23770.41%24.16%10.00
express-scripts-holding$8.27$70.44$0.00751.75%23.89%10.00
mckesson$24.82$195.82$5.52750.53%23.87%10.00
cummins$18.50$130.86$10.72722.99%23.46%10.00
union-pacific$15.48$105.34$7.83713.02%23.31%10.00
cabot-oil-and-gas$3.81$29.84$0.35706.15%23.21%10.00
amazon-com$40.15$315.37$0.00685.48%22.89%10.00
perrigo$20.74$152.39$2.56682.18%22.84%10.00
oreilly-automotive$19.30$150.06$0.00677.51%22.76%10.00
tractor-supply$7.84$58.31$1.65672.90%22.69%10.00
monster-beverage$12.59$95.47$0.00658.30%22.46%10.00
kansas-city-southern$16.20$115.67$2.48632.98%22.04%10.00
precision-castparts$30.87$223.47$1.14632.27%22.03%10.00
altria-group$47.01$46.37$93.71631.84%22.02%10.00
f5-networks$15.84$115.31$0.00627.97%21.96%10.00
ross-stores$11.61$76.17$3.41626.88%21.94%10.00
oneok$11.58$58.80$8.66617.92%21.79%10.00
vf$12.45$65.04$6.28577.05%21.08%10.00
humana$19.49$125.03$3.68569.07%20.93%10.00
autozone$77.00$508.32$0.00560.16%20.77%10.00
amerisourcebergen$13.27$77.20$4.28558.99%20.75%10.00
dollar-tree$8.62$56.70$0.00557.77%20.73%10.00
fmc-technologies$8.32$51.32$1.57549.88%20.58%10.00
helmerich-and-payne$14.49$85.36$4.95542.60%20.45%10.00
monsanto$19.22$107.69$9.98538.91%20.38%10.00
edwards-lifesciences$16.70$105.67$0.00532.75%20.26%10.00
csx$5.84$30.73$3.30529.95%20.21%10.00
williams-cos$10.38$50.18$6.60518.45%19.99%10.00
tjx-companies$11.14$60.49$3.01512.03%19.86%10.00
southwestern-energy$5.56$33.82$0.00508.27%19.79%10.00
sherwin-williams$42.48$214.01$14.18504.50%19.71%10.00
reynolds-american$17.17$59.20$18.12502.86%19.68%10.00
amphenol$17.03$98.68$2.10499.69%19.62%10.00
ametek$8.96$48.40$1.47473.88%19.09%10.00
cognizant-technology-solutions$7.70$44.12$0.00472.99%19.07%10.00
range-resources$11.43$63.43$1.33471.66%19.05%10.00
eog-resources$17.32$91.96$2.55459.69%18.79%10.00
pvh$21.61$115.46$1.48451.88%18.63%10.00
allergan$35.18$187.55$2.00450.43%18.60%10.00
blackrock$72.16$315.21$40.06441.49%18.40%10.00
sigma-aldrich$28.62$135.60$6.16429.54%18.14%10.00
quanta-services$6.34$33.38$0.00426.50%18.07%10.00
snap-on$28.76$117.80$12.66424.60%18.03%10.00
stericycle$22.49$117.89$0.00424.19%18.02%10.00
nike$19.77$87.23$5.57410.76%17.71%10.00
national-oilwell-varco$15.10$71.34$4.18409.10%17.67%10.00
borg-warner$10.80$51.42$1.36405.89%17.60%10.00
universal-health-services$21.97$104.32$1.83400.13%17.47%10.00
airgas$24.55$106.84$9.20399.06%17.44%10.00
w-w-grainger$58.39$246.15$21.24398.97%17.44%10.00
roper-industries$30.53$143.25$4.21398.03%17.42%10.00
fmc$12.05$53.49$2.82378.68%16.95%10.00
davita-healthcare-partners$15.73$73.99$0.00370.38%16.75%10.00
hormel-foods$13.31$51.62$4.46366.74%16.66%10.00
discovery-communications$7.82$35.79$0.00357.67%17.85%9.26
discovery-communications$7.82$35.79$0.00357.67%17.85%9.26
mcdonalds$27.68$92.72$20.60352.85%16.30%10.00
simon-property-group$52.53$168.66$31.96351.71%16.27%10.00
constellation-brands$19.23$86.38$0.00349.19%16.21%10.00
tesoro$15.35$61.98$3.27344.66%16.09%10.00
cameron-international$13.38$59.14$0.00342.00%16.02%10.00
noble-energy$14.90$60.30$3.39340.11%15.97%10.00
gamestop$9.56$38.30$2.89339.91%15.97%10.00
thermo-fisher-scientific$27.40$117.82$1.59338.63%15.93%10.00
norfolk-southern$30.64$105.43$13.49329.57%15.69%10.00
cvs-health$21.20$81.95$4.29327.46%15.64%10.00
eastman-chemical$23.85$76.06$9.89322.90%15.51%10.00
lockheed-martin$55.50$174.55$27.00320.90%15.46%10.00
nordstrom$20.19$69.82$7.44317.43%15.36%10.00
estee-lauder-cos-$20.24$73.61$3.72308.02%15.10%10.00
kroger$15.08$53.26$3.62304.21%14.99%10.00
ppg-industries$61.05$186.03$21.63303.75%14.98%10.00
carmax$11.48$46.30$0.00303.31%14.96%10.00
yum-brands$20.68$69.00$8.11298.19%14.82%10.00
walt-disney$24.56$85.71$4.47293.73%14.69%10.00
occidental-petroleum$28.79$92.53$15.01292.53%14.65%10.00
cigna$23.24$89.98$0.39291.43%14.62%10.00
visa$56.50$207.71$5.83285.65%22.84%6.56
nvidia$4.85$17.91$0.64284.97%14.43%10.00
intuit$22.05$81.81$2.29284.32%14.41%10.00
pall$25.04$82.46$6.57282.97%14.37%10.00
ecolab$32.61$110.66$6.43282.45%14.36%10.00
hasbro$18.83$54.85$9.18277.12%14.20%10.00
colgate-palmolive$22.00$65.20$9.40273.24%14.08%10.00
halliburton$17.20$57.28$3.73271.74%14.03%10.00
coca-cola-enterprises$19.40$42.04$14.35270.87%14.00%10.00
wisconsin-energy$16.04$44.88$7.99269.84%13.97%10.00
fastenal$14.48$44.70$5.19267.10%13.89%10.00
ball$18.79$63.06$2.81267.20%13.89%10.00
brown-forman$30.17$88.46$10.42265.75%13.85%10.00
eqt$27.35$84.31$7.37265.70%13.84%10.00
wellpoint$42.38$118.93$16.87264.84%13.82%10.00
tiffany$29.93$92.63$8.36262.77%13.75%10.00
t-rowe-price-group$25.48$75.97$10.35260.89%13.69%10.00
fiserv$17.66$63.67$0.00260.53%13.68%10.00
marathon-oil$12.23$34.71$5.78259.69%13.66%10.00
affiliated-managers-group$54.30$193.25$0.00255.89%13.54%10.00
praxair$42.40$121.98$16.52248.71%13.30%10.00
family-dollar-stores$26.44$77.75$6.53246.54%13.23%10.00
cbre-group$8.44$29.10$0.00244.79%13.18%10.00
northrop-grumman$46.95$124.02$16.58243.81%13.14%10.00
costco-wholesale$44.90$128.41$14.95242.46%13.10%10.00
accenture$26.90$78.19$8.43242.11%13.09%10.00
aetna$24.63$78.62$2.86238.29%12.96%10.00
oracle$12.20$38.74$1.72235.84%12.88%10.00
chubb$34.85$92.66$13.54234.39%12.83%10.00
starbucks$23.91$74.48$3.31233.27%12.79%10.00
lam-research$21.93$72.56$0.36232.62%12.77%10.00
archer-daniels-midl$17.09$47.13$5.79231.08%12.72%10.00
bristol-myers-squibb$23.20$49.50$12.64231.20%12.72%10.00
time-warner-cable$122.25$142.48$40.77230.33%16.68%7.75
citrix-systems$20.48$67.27$0.00228.47%12.63%10.00
fossil-group$29.47$96.76$0.00228.33%12.62%10.00
rockwell-automation$39.45$102.95$13.90224.20%12.48%10.00
lorillard$25.54$59.87$11.15223.79%20.38%6.33
honeywell-international$35.54$89.77$12.37222.09%12.41%10.00
dollar-general$19.37$60.63$0.46221.32%12.38%10.00
dominion-resources$32.93$70.43$17.61216.94%12.23%10.00
schlumberger$34.00$94.92$8.79216.71%12.22%10.00
fluor$22.24$63.86$5.11216.56%12.21%10.00
deere$31.56$81.15$13.16216.15%12.20%10.00
sandisk$28.96$89.99$1.20215.81%12.19%10.00
franklin-resources$19.11$51.43$5.23215.47%12.17%10.00
parker-hannifin$41.37$109.53$11.38211.05%12.02%10.00
cme-group$33.25$80.98$15.99211.25%12.02%10.00
genuine-parts$38.89$86.52$16.82210.62%12.00%10.00
verisign$20.95$55.25$5.75209.70%11.97%10.00
whirlpool$58.50$141.28$19.18209.52%11.96%10.00
c-r-bard$52.25$148.88$6.70207.30%11.88%10.00
comcast$19.50$53.32$3.36207.03%11.87%10.00
boeing$50.26$122.76$16.33204.90%11.79%10.00
hess$30.20$84.60$4.75203.10%11.73%10.00
conocophillips$33.22$71.44$18.00202.70%11.71%10.00
autonation$17.05$51.57$0.00202.46%11.70%10.00
nisource$21.34$40.60$9.35202.01%11.69%10.00
general-dynamics$50.04$121.50$15.68201.94%11.68%10.00
equifax$26.39$72.30$4.09200.70%11.64%10.00
duke-energy$40.93$76.39$26.63200.82%11.64%10.00
becton-dickinson$50.91$127.94$14.10200.38%11.63%10.00
equity-residential$32.07$64.10$17.60200.37%11.63%10.00
international-flavors-and-fragrances$38.42$93.10$10.72198.86%11.57%10.00
general-mills$22.11$49.89$10.02198.08%11.54%10.00
caterpillar$39.71$93.50$16.39198.15%11.54%10.00
home-depot$40.07$93.07$9.97197.30%11.51%10.00
mylan$17.45$50.12$0.60196.01%11.46%10.00
garmin$22.88$49.72$11.31194.13%11.39%10.00
dover$31.74$76.12$8.83193.23%11.36%10.00
coca-cola$20.01$43.87$8.44191.68%11.30%10.00
moodys$36.65$94.67$4.91190.44%11.25%10.00
merck$30.74$59.21$15.42190.18%11.24%10.00
chevron$54.91$114.51$28.09189.03%11.20%10.00
nucor$23.70$49.63$15.00187.00%11.12%10.00
baxter-international$31.19$71.81$11.92186.68%11.11%10.00
air-products-and-chemicals$54.31$123.31$18.85186.29%11.09%10.00
edison-international$26.80$57.10$12.31186.25%11.09%10.00
tyson-foods$15.85$40.96$1.80185.81%11.07%10.00
marriott-international$24.97$64.58$3.39184.64%11.03%10.00
cardinal-health$42.75$75.40$16.57184.59%11.03%10.00
expedia$48.04$83.83$17.72182.51%11.92%9.22
automatic-data-processing$33.37$73.19$11.08182.52%10.94%10.00
harris$27.32$63.61$8.95181.99%10.92%10.00
hcp$26.55$41.14$19.21180.21%10.85%10.00
anadarko-petroleum$34.48$90.00$4.21179.71%10.83%10.00
danaher$26.73$72.77$0.93177.45%10.74%10.00
valero-energy$19.08$45.43$4.65176.76%10.72%10.00
abbott-laboratories$19.75$41.63$6.99175.48%10.66%10.00
molson-coors-brewing$33.27$73.60$9.49174.58%10.63%10.00
johnson-controls$18.93$42.28$5.71171.23%10.49%10.00
darden-restaurants$24.05$49.27$11.72168.86%10.40%10.00
wyndham-worldwide$32.50$76.71$4.61168.25%12.74%8.23
united-technologies$46.14$99.94$15.69168.31%10.37%10.00
perkinelmer$18.01$42.43$2.73164.73%10.23%10.00
public-service-enterprise-group$21.25$37.64$13.04163.14%10.16%10.00
amgen$55.89$137.58$5.71162.17%10.12%10.00
stanley-black-and-decker$41.67$84.17$14.66161.42%10.09%10.00
unum-group$15.10$33.34$3.68160.20%10.03%10.00
agl-resources$30.92$51.29$16.86158.18%9.95%10.00
adobe-systems$25.47$65.66$0.01157.90%9.94%10.00
micron-technology$11.90$30.64$0.00157.48%9.92%10.00
cablevision-systems$12.37$17.37$8.84156.63%9.88%10.00
hershey$46.36$93.43$13.24156.39%9.87%10.00
covidien$40.78$92.69$5.67155.33%13.65%7.33
international-business-machines$86.63$186.42$23.16153.74%9.76%10.00
petsmart$28.93$66.51$3.64150.48%9.62%10.00
pepsico$48.73$93.57$17.41149.14%9.56%10.00
emerson-electric$31.48$59.66$12.97149.16%9.56%10.00
unitedhealth-group$36.63$84.94$4.01148.88%9.55%10.00
texas-instruments$21.89$46.02$5.13148.21%9.52%10.00
mattel$18.04$30.62$9.42147.91%9.50%10.00
paccar$31.05$57.40$12.21146.92%9.46%10.00
johnson-and-johnson$55.36$102.08$19.77146.69%9.45%10.00
kimberly-clark$63.94$108.45$26.23146.04%9.42%10.00
spectra-energy$20.90$37.10$8.27145.92%9.42%10.00
torchmark$23.57$51.86$3.01144.07%9.33%10.00
mccormick$34.89$67.72$10.24143.92%9.33%10.00
starwood-hotels-and-resorts-worldwide$47.83$76.07$23.77143.60%9.31%10.00
jacobs-engineering-group$19.51$47.25$0.00142.18%9.25%10.00
berkshire-hathaway$56.80$137.09$0.00141.36%9.21%10.00
republic-services$20.17$38.33$6.88141.33%9.21%10.00
microchip-technology$27.59$45.54$11.86138.41%9.08%10.00
emc$12.22$28.39$0.63137.97%9.06%10.00
southwest-airlines$13.59$31.32$0.47137.69%9.04%10.00
eaton$32.85$59.52$11.46137.12%9.02%10.00
vornado-realty-trust$64.33$101.65$33.32136.99%9.01%10.00
ingersoll-rand$27.65$55.84$5.15136.86%9.01%10.00
clorox$54.57$97.46$18.95136.44%8.99%10.00
southern$30.53$44.83$17.55134.14%8.88%10.00
nrg-energy$13.83$31.04$1.03133.24%8.84%10.00
exxon-mobil$49.79$91.82$17.51131.41%8.75%10.00
autodesk$24.35$56.07$0.03130.48%8.71%10.00
safeway$17.73$34.06$3.98130.61%8.71%10.00
the-gap$19.13$36.67$4.26129.65%8.67%10.00
viacom$34.46$72.06$4.91129.33%8.65%10.00
laboratory-of-america-holdings$42.95$98.44$0.00129.20%8.65%10.00
waters$42.74$97.90$0.00129.06%8.64%10.00
dun-and-bradstreet$58.70$117.50$10.84128.08%8.59%10.00
lowes-companies$27.52$53.91$3.99125.42%8.47%10.00
3m$79.22$138.64$21.61125.32%8.46%10.00
pepco-holdings$20.32$26.84$10.62124.34%8.42%10.00
dupont$43.43$67.31$16.22123.48%8.37%10.00
robert-half-international$25.55$48.27$4.84123.23%8.36%10.00
microsoft$28.06$45.85$8.95122.77%8.34%10.00
wells-fargo$30.23$51.12$9.00122.47%8.32%10.00
illinois-tool-works$46.63$81.68$12.17121.28%8.27%10.00
time-warner$47.46$72.07$11.92120.77%8.24%10.00
newell-rubbermaid$20.30$33.86$5.83120.28%8.22%10.00
consolidated-edison$42.74$58.20$23.09119.77%8.19%10.00
freeport-mcmoran-copper-and-gold$20.58$31.14$11.81118.82%8.15%10.00
flir-systems$13.93$29.18$1.18118.84%8.15%10.00
verizon-communications$36.74$48.93$17.86118.77%8.14%10.00
at-t$26.87$34.66$16.08118.42%8.13%10.00
kla-tencor$41.46$73.65$9.18118.24%8.12%10.00
american-express$45.98$85.89$7.08117.40%8.07%10.00
pentair-plc$35.05$62.72$7.39116.93%8.05%10.00
intel$20.61$33.62$6.18115.54%7.98%10.00
omnicom-group$36.61$65.93$8.46114.17%7.91%10.00
ppl$24.15$33.70$13.28113.33%7.87%10.00
ryder-system$48.28$83.90$9.94113.03%7.86%10.00
teco-energy$13.92$17.83$8.16111.50%7.78%10.00
pg-e$30.80$44.52$15.88110.85%7.75%10.00
varian-medical-systems$38.02$79.86$0.00110.05%7.70%10.00
campbell-soup$26.37$41.88$9.84109.86%7.69%10.00
broadcom$19.25$38.13$1.88109.69%7.69%10.00
qualcomm$41.21$74.08$7.72108.79%7.64%10.00
consol-energy$17.50$32.74$3.85107.56%7.58%10.00
goodyear-tire-and-rubber$10.18$20.92$0.21107.33%7.56%10.00
stryker$44.64$82.92$5.70104.71%7.43%10.00
scana$37.32$48.48$18.51104.58%7.42%10.00
procter-and-gamble$53.67$83.66$17.59104.30%7.41%10.00
iron-mountain$20.95$32.36$8.56104.45%7.41%10.00
google$279.51$570.81$0.00104.22%194.08%0.54
walgreen$35.80$61.55$6.41101.44%7.25%10.00
denbury-resources$6.50$12.94$0.19101.36%7.25%10.00
pnc-financial-services-group$54.17$83.02$16.88100.95%7.23%10.00
paychex$30.61$43.83$11.07100.33%7.19%10.00
urban-outfitters$17.86$35.71$0.0099.94%7.17%10.00
l-3-communications-holdings$64.78$108.11$14.3598.36%7.09%10.00
corning$10.58$18.58$1.9398.41%7.09%10.00
northern-trust$40.91$65.44$10.9096.16%6.97%10.00
jpmorgan-chase-and$39.38$59.08$11.2894.82%6.90%10.00
centurylink$34.40$39.73$18.2693.40%6.82%10.00
host-hotels-and-resorts$14.12$21.18$4.2690.71%6.67%10.00
fedex$86.45$156.51$4.6690.64%6.67%10.00
leggett-and-platt$27.33$33.79$9.6489.65%6.61%10.00
bemis$26.80$37.90$8.9989.65%6.61%10.00
cintas$42.40$69.46$4.9189.37%6.59%10.00
kellogg$42.50$60.67$14.5688.92%6.57%10.00
conagra-foods$26.00$33.85$8.9286.49%6.43%10.00
u-s-bancorp$29.47$40.58$9.5386.48%6.43%10.00
cincinnati-financial$38.72$46.69$15.1584.83%6.34%10.00
st-jude-medical$36.35$61.95$3.5783.92%6.28%10.00
murphy-oil$36.50$53.91$10.2881.29%6.13%10.00
devon-energy$37.23$61.30$6.3181.31%6.13%10.00
wal-mart-stores$52.90$77.86$11.9180.68%6.09%10.00
dentsply-international$26.36$45.04$1.9380.42%6.08%10.00
coach$20.94$34.04$5.0379.70%6.04%10.00
state-street$43.85$69.11$6.9279.12%6.00%10.00
altera$19.83$32.64$2.3578.61%5.97%10.00
aflac$39.56$56.93$10.2078.16%5.94%10.00
xilinx$27.76$40.19$5.9577.60%5.91%10.00
peoples-united-financial$11.72$14.04$5.7076.83%5.87%10.00
diamond-offshore-drilling$33.10$34.71$39.1975.15%5.76%10.00
plum-creek-timber$34.76$39.40$16.6273.95%5.69%10.00
netapp$23.55$39.57$0.9372.08%5.58%10.00
weyerhaeuser$65.20$31.77$39.2371.47%5.54%10.00
sealed-air$23.15$32.81$4.1170.88%5.50%10.00
hospira$29.96$51.03$0.0070.33%5.47%10.00
windstream-holdings$15.31$10.33$10.2570.28%5.66%9.67
bed-bath-and-beyond$39.19$66.32$0.0069.23%5.40%10.00
apache$52.01$81.88$6.1069.13%5.40%10.00
mohawk-industries$76.96$130.01$0.0068.93%5.38%10.00
interpublic-group-of-companies$11.03$17.07$1.0667.90%5.32%10.00
h-and-r-block$23.81$28.94$6.4267.55%5.30%10.00
c-h-robinson-worldwide$46.76$65.20$10.2566.78%5.25%10.00
sysco$30.20$37.15$9.2866.74%5.25%10.00
allstate$47.85$61.01$10.8766.08%5.20%10.00
eli-lilly$59.00$64.30$18.3264.25%5.09%10.00
m-and-t-bank$99.83$121.01$25.9063.84%5.06%10.00
international-paper$39.89$46.98$9.2260.49%4.84%10.00
expeditors-international-of-washington$26.84$38.57$3.7857.88%4.67%10.00
progressive$21.33$25.27$5.9756.44%4.58%10.00
analog-devices$38.39$46.34$8.8255.04%4.48%10.00
dow-chemical$44.95$48.23$12.1953.33%4.37%10.00
applied-materials$16.29$20.87$2.5152.25%4.29%10.00
target$47.76$61.60$8.7251.35%4.23%10.00
total-system-services$25.40$29.60$6.0950.65%4.18%10.00
quest-diagnostics$43.10$58.35$5.9150.47%4.17%10.00
medtronic$51.18$63.65$7.7148.09%4.00%10.00
pfizer$30.31$28.99$9.2744.96%3.78%10.00
marsh-and-mclennan-companies$46.01$50.07$8.6544.98%3.78%10.00
linear-technology$36.84$41.30$8.2544.62%3.76%10.00
bank-of-new-york-mellon$32.63$37.31$6.7641.28%3.52%10.00
cisco-systems$18.98$24.19$1.9339.57%3.39%10.00
kimco-realty$25.50$22.63$10.3538.61%3.32%10.00
chesapeake-energy$15.61$19.18$2.6937.69%3.25%10.00
exelon$37.80$34.80$18.1737.12%3.21%10.00
kinder-morgan$31.05$36.70$4.9036.20%8.81%3.66
ensco$32.50$37.10$9.0035.99%3.12%10.00
bb-t$40.50$37.26$12.1034.33%3.00%10.00
vulcan-materials$50.93$57.33$10.1833.80%2.95%10.00
transocean$26.57$29.82$6.9029.45%2.62%10.00
general-growth-properties$24.95$23.87$7.4428.24%2.52%10.00
computer-sciences$49.14$57.64$3.5628.02%2.50%10.00
aes$10.84$13.47$0.3527.64%2.47%10.00
kohls$49.25$57.14$4.8527.65%2.47%10.00
twenty-first-century-fox$28.26$33.11$1.3627.48%2.46%10.00
leucadia-national$18.96$22.39$1.9026.93%2.41%10.00
lincoln-national$46.67$49.67$7.7726.74%2.40%10.00
tenet-healthcare$44.76$55.97$0.0025.04%2.26%10.00
capital-one-financial$73.15$81.44$4.8324.11%2.18%10.00
yahoo$34.02$41.10$0.0020.81%1.91%10.00
patterson-companies$37.86$40.96$2.6816.74%1.56%10.00
hudson-city-bancorp$11.33$9.55$3.6316.13%1.51%10.00
ca$26.73$26.58$3.9015.64%1.46%10.00
ford-motor$13.95$13.84$1.7315.11%1.42%10.00
tyco-international$60.96$42.48$15.6515.03%1.41%10.00
textron$32.52$33.51$3.8814.91%1.40%10.00
noble$19.59$19.50$4.6114.58%1.37%10.00
frontier-communications$13.27$5.93$7.9813.56%1.28%10.00
ebay$46.87$52.86$0.0012.78%1.21%10.00
d-r-horton$21.47$20.64$2.7312.61%1.19%10.00
legg-mason$53.40$49.28$5.645.35%0.52%10.00
lennar$43.32$39.82$3.474.77%0.47%10.00
news$16.00$15.48$1.114.11%0.40%10.00
xerox$14.19$12.76$1.323.68%0.36%10.00
navient$16.99$17.26$0.303.43%7.16%0.48
general-electric$34.00$24.78$8.383.13%0.31%10.00
comerica$62.18$47.48$12.621.91%0.19%10.00
motorola-solutions$66.94$60.46$6.491.84%0.18%10.00
newfield-exploration$31.73$31.68$0.00-0.16%-0.02%10.00
whole-foods-market$42.59$37.23$4.70-0.48%-0.05%10.00
best-buy$36.73$30.86$5.11-0.53%-0.05%10.00
allegion$48.50$46.70$0.24-3.28%-3.69%0.89
jabil-circuit$23.51$19.39$2.50-3.65%-0.37%10.00
morgan-stanley$48.80$33.30$20.06-5.09%-0.52%10.00
carnival$48.83$35.67$9.60-5.71%-0.59%10.00
harman-international-industries$104.62$93.68$2.71-6.54%-0.67%10.00
avery-dennison$63.02$42.64$12.96-7.84%-0.81%10.00
general-motors$41.42$31.03$5.90-9.40%-0.98%10.00
masco$33.51$22.76$5.27-9.87%-1.03%10.00
symantec$27.86$23.44$0.90-12.50%-1.33%10.00
pitney-bowes$44.70$23.14$13.05-12.63%-1.34%10.00
juniper-networks$24.51$20.94$0.10-14.20%-1.52%10.00
nabors-industries$24.49$19.76$0.30-18.05%-1.97%10.00
pultegroup$25.16$17.90$0.94-25.38%-2.88%10.00
loews$59.13$40.90$3.04-26.04%-2.97%10.00
hartford-financial-services-group$62.89$36.52$9.28-27.80%-3.20%10.00
staples$19.83$11.74$3.38-27.87%-3.21%10.00
suntrust-banks$69.00$36.43$12.34-33.95%-4.06%10.00
xl-group$73.85$32.55$9.39-41.28%-5.18%10.00
newmont-mining$45.84$22.45$6.33-43.44%-5.54%10.00
alcoa$33.35$15.39$3.69-44.75%-5.76%10.00
keycorp$31.89$13.09$6.26-45.94%-5.97%10.00
huntington-bancshares$25.05$9.54$4.45-47.51%-6.24%10.00
zions-bancorporation$60.21$27.64$7.42-47.65%-6.27%10.00
fifth-third-bancorp$50.13$19.62$7.41-48.05%-6.34%10.00
bank-of-america$45.41$16.59$9.38-53.38%-7.35%10.00
gannett$85.00$27.89$8.37-53.98%-7.47%10.00
regions-financial$33.78$9.72$6.35-61.56%-9.12%10.00
avon-products$40.75$11.05$6.85-64.92%-9.95%10.00
boston-scientific$37.70$11.92$0.00-68.38%-10.88%10.00
etrade-financial$114.80$20.36$0.00-82.26%-15.88%10.00
citigroup$448.60$51.14$74.24-86.19%-17.96%10.00
american-international-group$1349.60$50.42$61.38-95.23%-26.23%10.00

Summary from 10-Year Returns

Based on the data, here is the summary:

Annual Returns Number of companies
>50% 2
Between 40% and 50% 2
Between 30% and 40% 4
Between 20% and 30% 36
Between 10% and 20% 148
Between 0% and 10% 171
Between -10% and 0% 31
Between -20% and -10% 3
Between -30% and -20% 1

During a 10-year period between October 11 2004 and October 9 2014 (including the financial crisis years happened in 2007-08), there is about 8.8% chance (\frac{31+3+1}{398}\times100\%) of choosing a “wrong” company that loses money.

The great news is, there is 48.2% chance (\frac{2+2+4+36+148}{398}\times100\%) of choosing a company that have more than 10% annual returns out of the pool of 398 companies.

So with pure luck alone, if you implement a buy and hold strategy for 10 years for your stock investment, you have high chance of making a good return. That’s the beauty of buy and hold investment strategy where the effort required is minimal (just randomly choose a few companies from S&P 500 components) while still be able to generate a decent return. So, this makes me think: does the effort to speculate on stocks really worth it? What do you think?

Note: there is a survivor-ship bias involved in this study where the companies that were once in S&P 500 and were excluded due to bankruptcy were not taken into account. Nevertheless, that still does not discount the benefit of buy and hold strategy due to the fact that you never lose more than 100% of your capital. The downside is limited but the upside, however, can go to more than 100%. Let’s say you buy 2 companies with equal amount of money: One goes bankrupt and another gains 400% over 10 years (annual returns of 15% which is very probable according to the data above), after 10 years, you total returns are 200% even you hold a company that went bankrupt!

 

 





  • Interesting. Wasn’t aware of the split too.